37th State of Logistics Report: Forging Resilience Amid Disruption

Event Overview

On June 16, 2026, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) released the 37th State of Logistics Report at the Empire State Building in New York. Authored by global consulting firm Kearney and sponsored by Penske Logistics, the report is the industry's most anticipated annual assessment of logistics and transportation trends. This year's theme is "Forged in Disruption," with the core conclusion being that ongoing geopolitical conflicts, trade policy adjustments, energy challenges, labor shortages, and rising operating costs are reshaping global supply chains, forcing companies to elevate adaptability from temporary crisis response to a core competency.

Supply Chain Background

The report indicates that total U.S. business logistics costs in 2025 were $2.4 trillion, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, lower than $2.6 trillion (8.7%) in 2025. For comparison, before the deregulation of trucking in 1979, logistics costs accounted for approximately 19% of GDP. This long-term decline reflects industry efficiency improvements, but the current cost reduction is more due to weak demand and capacity adjustments.

Five structural forces continue to shape the global logistics landscape with no signs of easing in the short term: asymmetric global economic growth; tightening financial conditions due to persistent inflation and rising public debt; accelerated trade flows and geopolitical restructuring; labor and productivity constraints; and energy price volatility. The report specifically notes that trade policies changed on average every 1.5 weeks in 2025, making tariff complexity a "permanent operational variable." The risk profile has evolved from "network debt" (inefficiencies from delayed redesign) to "network drift" (passive adjustments gradually eroding supply chain performance).

Enterprise Decision-Making Logic

In the face of ongoing volatility, companies are abandoning traditional five-year plans and shifting to a "continuous adaptation" model. The report's authors believe that logistics performance now depends more on resilience, pricing discipline, and digital productivity than on demand recovery or scale expansion. The defining shift in supply chain management is from "periodic optimization" to "continuous adaptation."

• Specific decisions include:
• Resilience-first design: No longer pursuing only efficiency and lowest cost, but considering multi-sourcing, regionalized layouts, and safety stock.
• Dynamic procurement strategies: Leading shippers are moving from annual tenders to dynamic procurement to cope with volatility.
• Accelerated digitization and automation: Labor constraints are driving companies to invest in AI, robotics, and autonomous trucks, moving from pilots to large-scale deployment.
• Asset productivity first: Prioritize improving utilization of existing assets before expansion, controlling the pace of capital expenditure.

Artificial intelligence has become a measurable source of business value. The report points out that AI creates value through four capabilities: interpretation, prediction, recommendation, and execution. However, adoption remains uneven, with a gap between "embedded in core processes" and "isolated pilots."

Supply Chain Impact### Performance by Transportation Mode - Trucking: The U.S. truckload (TL) market is undergoing a supply-side reset. Since the freight boom of 2022, approximately 89,000 carriers have exited the market. The market has evolved from a single national market into a 'lane-specific market,' where pricing, capacity, and service levels vary by corridor. - Rail: The proposed merger of Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific seeks to create the first single-line rail network spanning the East and West Coasts. However, revenues remain flat, freight volumes show modest growth, and intermodal revenue has declined. - Air Freight: Global demand grew by 3.4%, but regional differences are significant. Asia-Europe volumes surged 10.3%, while Asia-North America fell 0.8%. Tariff-driven frontloading, sustainable aviation fuel requirements, and restrictions on Persian Gulf routes amplify volatility. The report notes, 'Air freight is shifting toward high-value-density goods, where speed and reliability matter more than transportation costs.' - Parcel and Last Mile: After the cancellation of the 'de minimis' exemption for Chinese parcels, daily air freight volumes fell by approximately 85%, forcing shippers to shift to domestic fulfillment. Carriers have raised general rate increases (GRI) by an average of 5.9%, plus surcharges. The $1.23 trillion e-commerce market supports demand, but service models are diverging into ultra-low-cost regional delivery and premium time-definite delivery. - Ocean Freight: Capacity oversupply persists. Although bottlenecks such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz support freight rates in the short term, new vessel deliveries deepen the supply-demand imbalance. - Warehousing: Employment remains stable at 1.8–1.9 million people, but there is a shortage of skilled technicians and supervisory positions, with annual turnover exceeding 40%. - Third-Party Logistics (3PL): The industry is at a 'strategic inflection point,' where shippers expect a shift from transactional execution to end-to-end supply chain orchestration. Leading 3PLs are expanding node density, deploying real-time visibility tools, and AI solutions.

Inventory and Procurement Systems Companies are reassessing inventory strategies. Driven by resilience, safety stock levels are rising, but the pressure of capital costs forces a balance between efficiency and redundancy. Dynamic procurement strategies and regionalized layouts (such as nearshoring) are becoming trends.

Regional Impact The report primarily focuses on the U.S. market, but a global perspective runs throughout.

• North America: U.S. logistics costs have decreased but volatility has increased. Frequent changes in trade policy affect cross-border supply chains, and the roles of Mexico and Canada as nearshoring destinations have strengthened.
• Asia: China, affected by tariffs and the cancellation of the de minimis policy, is shifting its export model to the U.S., with companies accelerating 'China+1' strategies. Intra-Asia routes (e.g., Asia-Europe) are growing strongly.
• Europe: High energy costs and sustainable aviation fuel requirements are driving up operating costs, and regional supply chain restructuring continues.
• Middle East: Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz limit alternative shipping routes, affecting Asia-Europe trade.
• Latin America and Africa: In the trends of nearshoring and friendshoring, regions such as Mexico and India are gaining attention, but infrastructure and labor bottlenecks still need to be overcome.## Future Trends

• The report outlines key directions for the next 1-5 years:
• Continuous adaptation becomes the norm: Enterprises will build flexible supply chain architectures, making regular adjustments rather than fixed plans.
• Deep embedding of AI: AI will expand from prediction to autonomous execution, but organizational capability gaps will widen the divide between leaders and laggards.
• Large-scale automation deployment: Technologies such as autonomous trucks and warehouse robots will accelerate adoption, alleviating labor shortages.
• Dynamic procurement becomes widespread: Annual bidding will decrease, with more real-time market pricing and smart contracts.
• Supply chain finance and capital reallocation: In a high-interest-rate environment, companies will reassess investment pacing and prioritize asset productivity.
• ESG and transparency pressures: Requirements for sustainable aviation fuel, carbon emission tracking, etc., will increase costs, but also represent competitive differentiators.

Kearney partner Korhan Acar emphasized during the release: "This year's report comes at a time when the forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions, but enduring features of the operating environment. Companies that want to stay ahead must combine resilience, pricing discipline, and digital productivity."