37th State of Logistics Report: Forging Resilience in Turbulence

Event Overview

In June 2026, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), in collaboration with Kearney, released the 37th Annual State of Logistics Report, themed "Forged in Disruption." The report points out that geopolitical conflicts, trade policy volatility, energy challenges, labor shortages, and rising operational costs have evolved from temporary shocks into permanent operational variables. Companies must internalize adaptability as a core capability rather than a crisis response tool.

Supply Chain Background

The global logistics network is undergoing a structural transformation. The report reveals five persistent forces: asymmetric global growth, financial tightening driven by inflation and high public debt, accelerating restructuring of trade flows and geopolitics, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price fluctuations. These forces intertwine, replacing "five-year plans" with "continuous adaptation." Supply chain risk has shifted from "network debt" (inefficiency due to delayed restructuring) to the danger of "network drift" (gradually weakening performance due to reactive adjustments).

Corporate Decision Logic

• Faced with trade policies changing on average every 1.5 weeks, companies are forced to treat tariff complexity as a permanent variable. Pricing discipline and digital productivity have become key to survival. Leading companies are:
• Shifting from pursuing point efficiency to designing end-to-end resilience;
• Prioritizing asset productivity over network expansion;
• Accelerating AI and automation investments to offset labor constraints;
• Restructuring procurement strategies from annual bidding to dynamic sourcing.

Supply Chain Impact

Trucking: The market has shifted from demand-driven recovery to supply-driven reset. Since 2022, approximately 89,000 carriers have exited, tightening capacity and driving up pricing, though regional disparities are significant. Leading shippers are turning to dynamic procurement strategies.

Rail: The proposed merger between Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific has drawn industry attention. Supporters claim it will improve transit times and promote rail conversion, but concerns over competition and service levels remain. Class I railroad revenues are flat, with slow volume growth.

Air Cargo: Global demand grew 3.4% in 2025, setting a new record, but regional divergence is severe: Asia-Europe volumes surged 10.3%, while Asia-North America volumes declined 0.8%. Value-dense goods have become a growth driver.

Parcel & Last-Mile: The elimination of the "de minimis" exemption for Chinese parcels caused a roughly 85% plunge in daily air cargo volumes, forcing companies to shift to domestic fulfillment. Overall rates rose 5.9%.

Ocean Freight: Capacity oversupply persists, but bottlenecks such as the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Panama Canal provide short-term support. Effective capacity has been reduced due to rerouting.

Warehousing: Employment remains stable at 1.8–1.9 million, but there is a shortage of high-skilled positions, with annual turnover exceeding 40%.Third-party logistics: Entering a strategic inflection point, customer demand is shifting from transaction execution to end-to-end supply chain orchestration. 3PLs are responding by expanding node density, embedding real-time visibility tools, and AI solutions.

Regional Impact

• North America: U.S. logistics costs as a percentage of GDP have dropped to 7.8% (from a high of 19% in 1979), a significant efficiency improvement. However, trade policy volatility is forcing companies to diversify sourcing, accelerating nearshoring (e.g., Mexico) and friend-shoring.
• Asia: The China+1 strategy continues, benefiting manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia. But parcel restrictions from China impact air freight models, forcing the construction of regional fulfillment networks.
• Europe: Asia-Europe air freight demand grew by 10.3%, but energy price fluctuations and sustainable aviation fuel requirements add cost pressure.
• Middle East: As a global bottleneck region, the situation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence maritime and air route choices.
• Latin America: Nearshoring is rising, but infrastructure and labor quality remain weaknesses.
• Africa: Its role in global supply chain restructuring is still marginal, but mineral resource export routes are gaining attention.

Future Trends

1. AI at scale: AI moves from experimentation to core workflows, creating value in four areas: explanation, prediction, recommendation, and execution, though adoption rates are uneven. In the next 1-3 years, AI will be deeply embedded in inventory optimization, demand forecasting, and route planning. 2. Accelerated investment in automation and robotics: To address labor shortages, deployment of automation in warehousing and manufacturing will speed up, and autonomous trucking enters pilot expansion stage. 3. Institutionalization of supply chain resilience design: Companies will establish regular stress-testing mechanisms, and inventory strategies will shift from "just-in-time" to a hybrid "just-in-case" model. 4. Dynamic procurement systems: Annual bidding will be replaced by dynamic procurement and contract flexibility, with supplier management emphasizing diversification and regionalization. 5. Strengthened regional clusters: North America, Europe, and Asia each form regional supply chain ecosystems, global trade growth slows, but intra-regional trade density rises. 6. Rising ESG and transparency requirements: Sustainable aviation fuel and carbon emission disclosure become standard in logistics contracts, and supply chain digitalization is the foundation for compliance.

Conclusion: Over the next five years, global supply chains will shift from efficiency-first to resilience-first, and adaptability will become a core differentiator for companies.